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Market Talk with Liz: April 2023

Posted by Liz Moore on Wed, May 03, 2023 @ 02:19 PM

cover-May-03-2023-06-15-28-8798-PMWelcome to the 2nd quarter 2023 edition of Market Talk! 

My goal is to walk through what’s happening in the market, and bring some clarity to those of you who are making real estate decisions this Spring and Summer.

The 4th quarter of 2022 saw a sharp rise in interest rates which cooled the frenzied housing market considerably. This was the result of the Fed’s rapid hikes to the federal funds rate in the final months of last year in an effort to halt inflation.

Rates doubled, which translated to a 38% increase in a typical monthly payment for a home buyer, which in turn caused a large number of buyers to put the brakes on their home searches.

mortgage rates

As a result, we began 2023 with a much different temperature in the market than most of last year. The buyers who remained in the market in January were skittish, and frustrated by the rapid rate acceleration.

For the first time since before the pandemic, we began to see buyers offering less than asking price, and in some cases even getting seller concessions. Home inspections and appraisals became the 
norm again, and buyers found themselves in a better bargaining position to ask sellers to make repairs than they had been in a long time.

Richmond:

In February in our Richmond office, offers accepted for less than asking or at asking price were 62% of the market, while bidding wars were only happening on approximately 38% of the listings.

asking price rvs

Just as buyers were beginning to feel that the market pendulum was swinging back to their favor, things heated up again in March. We saw a sharp rise in multiple offers as it became clear that the number of buyers was still outpacing the inventory.

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price had increased to 50% of all sales!

Peninsula:

In February in our Peninsula office, for example, offers accepted for less than asking or at asking price were 59% of the market, while bidding wars were only happening on approximately 39% of the listings.

asking price nn

Just as buyers were beginning to feel that the market pendulum was swinging back to their favor, things heated up again in March. We saw a sharp rise in multiple offers as it became clear that the number of buyers was still outpacing the inventory.

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price dipped just a bit to 36%.

Williamsburg

In February in our Williamsburg office, for example, offers accepted less than asking price climbed to over 50% of the market, while bidding wars were only happening on approximately 25% of the listings.

asking price wbg

Just as buyers were beginning to feel that the market pendulum was swinging back to their favor, things heated up again in March. We saw a sharp rise in multiple offers as it became clear that the number of buyers was still outpacing the inventory.

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price doubled in 30 days, representing 50% of all sales.

Northern Neck

nnk mt

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price dipped just a bit to 36%.

It seems that the market is delivering mixed signals right now, but I believe what is really happening is that there are several different markets colliding at the same time:

• For listings that are well priced and in good condition, there are still fewer homes available than there are buyers who need or want to move, and so that segment of the market is still pretty “hot,” with multiple offers and sellers enjoying the upper hand.

• For those sellers who have jumped into the market at the last minute (fearing that they’ve missed the gravy train of 2021 and early 2022, and accordingly pushing the envelope with unrealistic prices), they are experiencing a longer time on the market, and weary buyers pushing back with lower offers containing normal contingencies.

Markets are also experiencing different activity levels based on price point and location, which can seem confusing. Now, more than ever, it’s important to have a seasoned agent advising you on negotiating strategies whether you’re a buyer or a seller (or both).

Thinking about making a move?  Let us guide you through these market conditions!

 

 

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk

Market Talk with Liz: Third Quarter 2022

Posted by Liz Moore on Wed, Sep 14, 2022 @ 01:30 PM

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-1Welcome to Market Talk!

I'm Liz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, and today we’re going to talk about what’s happening in the local real estate market. It has been a crazy few years, that’s for sure…and folks have a lot of questions. So, we’re going to tackle the big ones today: if you’re a seller, have you missed your opportunity? And, if you’re a buyer, how do you avoid over-paying in this crazy market?

My goal is to bring some clarity about what’s really happening in the market, and how you can leverage that to accomplish your personal real estate goals.

So, let’s get to it!

Lots of people are concerned that we are headed for another real estate bubble. It’s hard to turn on the news and not hear someone talking about the housing market getting ready to crash.

My personal opinion is that is not going to happen. To be clear, the market is stabilizing, and we’re experiencing that right now. I think it is safe to say that the market has “peaked” and we’ll come back to what that means for sellers and for buyers.

However, stabilizing or correcting does not equal a market crash or a bubble bursting, like it did in 2008. The fundamentals in the housing market are VERY different than they were in 2008.

First of all, the housing inventory situation is totally different. In 2008, we had 8+ months of inventory or, “supply”. Now, we have less than a month.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-2

Next, one of the primary reasons for the 2008 crash was ridiculously lax lending standards – mortgage companies would literally approve a mortgage for anyone who could fog a mirror. Today, the opposite is true – mortgage underwriters are extremely conservative making sure that borrowers can afford the monthly payments they are applying for.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-3

Lastly, people have more equity than ever, and even if they faced foreclosure, they would be able to sell.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-4

What all that means is that people are in a far better position to weather a tough economic period than they were 15 years ago. t’s pretty clear that we’re going to face some serious inflation in the coming months, but that is not likely to cause a rash of foreclosures. Even for those folks that are unable to afford their
current living situation, there is plenty of demand and equity to give them enough room to sell without facing foreclosure.

Ok, Liz, if the real estate market isn’t going to crash, then what *is* going to happen next?

Well, it’s already happening. The market is beginning to stabilize. This is happening for a couple of reasons:

The recent increase in interest rates has taken some buyers out of the market. Each percentage point of increase translates to a loss of buying power of approximately 10%.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-5

Prices were escalating so quickly that buyers have begun to put the brakes on. At Liz Moore & Associates, one of the trends we follow very carefully is what we call an over asking report. The percentage of listings that are selling over the asking price remains high even after a slight dip.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-6

Let’s look at interest rates for a moment. This graph shows rates since 1971. Over the last 50 years, rates have averaged 7.77%. So, we still have a ways to go before we reach the average.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-7

As demand slows, we’re seeing fewer bidding wars (although there are still some), and as a result sales prices are not being driven up to the extreme levels of a few months ago.

What Does That Mean For Sellers?

So, does that mean that sellers have missed the boat? Not at all. Although they may have missed the crazy frenzy at the height of the market, a listing that’s in good shape and well-priced can still expect to sell relatively quickly and probably for full price, or at least close to it. Maybe only 2 offers to choose from rather than 17.

As the market continues to stabilize, we will see a return to more normal negotiating terms: no longer will buyers be forced to waive appraisals and home inspections if they want a house. We’re beginning to see home sale contingencies again.

My advice to sellers is this: If you are contemplating a move, you would be wise to do it sooner rather than later.

What Does the Changing Market Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have had a really rough go of it for the past 2 years. And, because many buyers are actually sellers on the other side of the transaction and vice versa, it will actually finally be a good time to consider moving up  Over the past year, many sellers stayed on the sideline because they didn’t want to get into the frenzy on the other end.

Over-paying has been a major buyer concern given the market dynamics of the past few years. Let’s look at appreciation trends and see what they really mean:

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-8

The wild card here is that we can’t really forecast what appreciation is going to do; all we can do is look at historical averages and make our best guess 

Which is why when we’re counseling buyers, we encourage
them not only to look at their house as an investment or “asset,” but also as their HOME. Buyers need to make a choice given their options. For instance, if the choice is between renting and owning, you need to consider that rents rise with inflation. And so, although you may be paying a higher interest rate right now, your monthly housing cost will be fixed, as opposed to subject to 3-5% annual rent increases.

Make your best offer, and as long as you plan to be in your new home long enough, appreciation is likely to offset what you may have to over pay. Your REALTOR® can review appreciation trends specific to your neighborhood with you.

Contact us to learn what this data means for your specific situation!

 

 

 

Tags: Home Sale Statistics & Trends, MarketTalk

OUR FAVORITE PLACES: La Cucina

Posted by Liz Moore on Sat, Jul 10, 2021 @ 09:20 PM

laBy Brandy Centolanza

When it comes to authentic Italian cuisine, Vito Bellantuono, owner of La Cucina Ristorante Italiano & Pizzeria in Midlothian, takes things seriously. Vito, a native of Italy, has been working hard the past nine years to provide his customers with the best Italian dishes out there.

“We are trying to strike that balance between American Italian food and true Italian food,” Vito said. “We are
always trying new flavors. Our goal is to introduce our customers to different ingredients and to expand their palates.”

Vito co-owns La Cucina, which means “the kitchen” in Italian, with his wife, Joann. The restaurant is located at The Shoppes at Bellgrade on West Huguenot Road. Though he’s owned La Cucina since 2010, he’s been in the
restaurant industry his whole life.

Vito was born in Italy and migrated to the United States in 1973. His father’s entire family was involved in the
restaurant business in Brooklyn, NY, and Vito started working at a young age. He began by serving slices of pizza and washing dishes, which evolved into working in the kitchen and meal prepping.

“It was just a natural progression,” Vito said. “Being a part of this business just became a part of my life.” Vito made his way to the Richmond area in 1995, where he opened an Italian restaurant with his brother-in-law. The duo later opened the restaurant Chianti on Gaskins Road. Eventually, Vito sold his half of Chianti to his brother-in-law when he and Joann decided to open La Cucina.

La Cucina serves traditional Italian food such as pizza and pasta including manicotti, ravioli, cannelloni, and
 lasagna as well as original dishes that Vito creates on a weekly basis. “We pride ourselves on our fish and
veal,” he said. “We have three different specials every week: a fish, a protein, and a pasta.”

La Cucina’s signature pasta dish is pasta Michaelangelo with chicken, shrimp, sausage, red peppers, and
artichoke in a light pink sauce. Other top sellers are the pasta Bolognese served with a meat sauce made with ground veal, beef, pork, and a hint of cream as well as the seared salmon in a lemon caper sauce. The veal and
chicken Marsala entrees are also popular. The restaurant offers roughly half a dozen different veal and chicken dinner entrees.

Vito operates in the kitchen while Joann is responsible for the front of the house. Nearly everything is made
in-house at La Cucina, from the bread to the sauces and dressings. Vito is constantly finding inspiration for his meal selections, even traveling back to Italy for ideas. Customers also rave about his soups.

“Our food is seasonal, and tends to be more hearty in the winter,” he said. “In the summer, I will use a lot more fruit. Right now, I am making a lot of soups. I try not to make the same soup more than twice a year.”

Vito has recipes for more than 100 soups. His wife’s favorite is the chicken gnocchi soup. “Cooking is like handwriting: everyone has their own signature,” Vito said. “I like creating and experimenting in the kitchen and finding out what works and what doesn’t.”

Patrons can eat in the dining room or al fresco on the patio during warmer weather. At La Cucina, Vito and Joann strive to meet the needs of every customer.

“Everything is made to order,” Vito said. “We want to give people a good quality meal and experience at a fair price. We want to make sure everything is right from the moment you place your order to the presentation of the food on your plate to serving you the meal.

Consistency is key to the craft. We don’t compromise on the quality of the food.” Vito and Joann have had loyal customers through the years, some whom come routinely to eat and have watched their two boys grow up. “It’s like they’ve become a part of our family, and that’s very rewarding,” Joann said. “It’s great to hear people say that this is the best food that they’ve had in a long time. Satisfying our customers is what it is all about.

 

 

Tags: lizlocal-richmond-food_and_drink

Where the Heck is the Northern Neck?

Posted by Liz Moore on Tue, Jul 06, 2021 @ 10:41 AM

NNK

 

 

 

By Susan McFadden

Located within an easy commute from major urban centers, the Northern Neck is about two hours south of Washington, D.C., one and one-half hours east of Richmond, and an hour north of Williamsburg.

The Northern Neck has often been referred to as “Virginia’s undiscovered gem.” It’s the northernmost of three peninsulas (traditionally called “necks” in Virginia) on the Chesapeake Bay’s western shore. The other two are the Middle Peninsula and the Virginia Peninsula.


The region is comprised of four distinctive coastal counties - Westmoreland, Richmond, Northumberland, and Lancaster - and is flanked by the Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. The rivers converge at the lower tip of the Northern Neck to meet the Chesapeake Bay. Two bridges span the Rappahannock River and provide access from the Middle Peninsula to the Northern Neck. The Norris Bridge connects Middlesex County to Lancaster
County, and the Downing Bridge connects Essex County to Richmond County.

Travel by water, air, or car. Marinas dot the 1,100 miles of shoreline, and many welcome transient boaters. Hummel Airport is a public-use facility located in Topping, just a short distance from the Norris Bridge.
Another facility, the Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, is less than 15 minutes from the Downing Bridge. Driving becomes a more recreational pastime once drivers turn off the interstate onto rural, scenic routes heading to their final Northern Neck destination.

From Northern Virginia, take US-17 South and crossover the Downing Bridge from Essex County to Richmond
County in the Northern Neck. Or travel the VA-3 East route that stretches the full length of the Neck.
From Richmond, take I-64 East to the West Point 220 exit. Travel VA-33 East and crossover the Norris Bridge that spans the Rappahannock River connecting Middlesex County to Lancaster County in the Northern Neck. An alternate route from Richmond is US-360 East and then crossing at the Downing Bridge.

Williamsburg is the closest urban center to the Northern Neck. Take I-64W to the West Point 227 exit. Continue on VA-33 East and crossover the Norris Bridge to Lancaster County.


Want to know more? We can help. Go to www.lizmoore.com/northernneck or stop by our office at 276 N. Main Street in Kilmarnock. All our agents are Northern Neck locals and would be happy to show you this incredible place we call home.

What Can We Expect to See in the Richmond Market in 2019?

Posted by Liz Moore on Thu, Mar 07, 2019 @ 02:52 PM

rawpixel-620230-unsplash2018 was another solid year for local real estate. Here in Richmond, closed sales finished down 2.15% for the year, with a 6.2% increase in 2 years overall. The final month showed pending sales down 12.3% compared to the year prior.

We are entering 2019 with less than 1.84 months of active inventory, and homes selling, on average, in only 32 days. On average, sellers accepted offers at over 99.75% of their asking price last year. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good condition, or for prospective sellers who are thinking about diving into the market. Nationwide, most markets are experiencing inventory shortages, which is the single biggest factor keeping a lid on the number of sales.

Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price in Richmond slightly above $290,000 for most of the year and finishing up at $293,539.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

A shortage of listings has been our biggest challenge for the past 18 months. My expectation is that we will continue to see more listings come on the market as we move into the Spring. We have seen a significant jump in new listings over the past few months, signaling that wise sellers recognize the importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As the typical Spring seasonal demand builds, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP in order to take advantage of a 9 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s important to note that the market can shift quickly, and it will not surprise me to see a highly competitive Spring season for homes selling below $350,000.

Interest rates will begin a slow and steady climb this year. Interest rates have been perplexing over the past 12 months. Most predicted the inevitable ascent would begin as the economy gained steam, but rates remained lower than predicted, most likely because the feds were hesitant to do anything that might inhibit the momentum of the recovery.

I believe that 2019 will be the year that interest rates incrementally increase, but the question remains by how much and how frequently. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods. Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. Appreciation was up in the Richmond Metro market last year (with the median sold price up just over 3.72%), and I expect will continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates (4 to 5%) in 2019 and beyond.

If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

We were fortunate to be a part of the Richmond Real Estate Market. Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for Central Virginia Regional residential home sales in 2018

If you are looking to buy or sell a home this year, email us at info@lizmoore.com.  We'd love to help!

Tags: Richmond, lizlocal-Richmond, relo-richmond-news

Liz's Crystal Ball for 2019

Posted by Liz Moore on Wed, Feb 27, 2019 @ 04:01 PM

crystal ball-12018 was another solid year for local real estate. Here in Williamsburg, closed sales finished up 5% for the year, on top of a 2% increase in 2017. The final quarter slowed down slightly, with pending sales down almost 2%.

We are entering 2019 with less than 4 months of active inventory, and homes selling, on average, in only 30 days. On average, sellers accepted offers at over 98% of their asking price last year. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good condition, or for prospective sellers who are thinking about diving into the market. Nationwide, most markets are experiencing inventory shortages, which is the single biggest factor keeping a lid on the number of sales.

The exception here is the luxury market, where sellers need to be significantly more patient – there is currently 18 months of inventory priced at $750,000 and up in Greater Williamsburg.

Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price in Williamsburg slightly above $300,000 for most of the year and finishing up at $310,000. 

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

A shortage of listings has been our biggest challenge for the past 18 months. My expectation is that we will continue to see more listings come on the market as we move into the Spring. We have seen a significant jump in new listings over the past few months, signaling that wise sellers recognize the importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As the typical Spring seasonal demand builds, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP in order to take advantage of a 9 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s important to note that the market can shift quickly, and it will not surprise me to see a highly competitive Spring season for homes selling below $500,000. Interest rates will continue a slow and steady climb this year.

Interest rates have been perplexing over the past 12 months. Most predicted the inevitable ascent would begin as the economy gained steam, but rates remained lower than predicted, most likely because the feds were hesitant to do anything that might inhibit the momentum of the recovery.

I believe that 2019 will be the year that interest rates incrementally increase, but the question remains by how much and how frequently. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods. Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. Appreciation was relatively flat in the Greater Williamsburg market last year (with the median sold price down just over 1%), and I expect will continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates (4 to 5%) in 2019 and beyond.

If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

We were fortunate to participate in 1 out of every 6 home sales in greater Williamsburg in 2018, insuring our position as the #1 agency in the local market. Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for WMLS, 23188, 23185, and 23186 residential home sales in 2018

If you are looking to buy or sell a home this year, email us at info@lizmoore.com.  We'd love to help!

Tags: Buyers, Sellers, Williamsburg, lizlocal-Williamsburg, relo-williamsburg-news

Join Us at Village Park of Poquoson for Craft Beer and Delicious Eats

Posted by Liz Moore on Tue, Apr 25, 2017 @ 03:34 PM

FoodTruck_Beer_SocialMedia2.jpgFree beer! Free food! Join us on May 6th from 1-3 at Village Park, the newest Wayne Harbin Builder community in Poquoson. St. George’s Brewery will be pouring their craft beer and The Thirsty Frog food truck will be serving some delicious eats!  

Out of 26 units, 6 have already sold and 3 are reserved. Don’t miss out on this flood insurance free living in Poquoson! Special incentives for a limited time. Call the Village Park team at 757-873-2707 for more details.

Download the Village Park Price List

Tags: Poquoson, New Homes, lizlocal, Peninsula, lizlocal-Peninsula

Liz's Crystal Ball for the Peninsula Housing Market

Posted by Liz Moore on Tue, Feb 14, 2017 @ 02:50 PM

crystal.jpg2016 was a solid year for local real estate. Here on the Peninsula, closed sales finished up
9.5% for the year, with pending sales up just under 10% in December, which is activity higher
than we typically see during the holidays. The New Year has started off with a bang, which I
believe is indicative of another strong year for our market.

We are entering 2017 with only slightly over 5 months of active inventory, and homes selling,
on average, in only 97 days. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good
condition. The exception here is the luxury market, where sellers need to be significantly
more patient – there is currently 10 months of inventory priced at $750,000 and up.
Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price on
the Peninsula hovering right around $180,000 for most of the year.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

Consumer confidence has been our biggest challenge in recent years, especially
during the contentious presidential election. With that behind us, activity levels have
definitely regained momentum.

My expectation is that there are many sellers who have been waiting for more favorable
market conditions to list – and that should begin to happen as we move toward Spring.
We saw a 30% jump in new listings in December, signaling that wise sellers recognize the
importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As prices begin an inevitable rise, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP
in order to take advantage of a 7 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s
important to note that the market can shift quickly, and the pendulum is likely to continue its
swing toward lower inventory levels, creating a more competitive environment than we’ve seen
in recent years.

Interest rates will begin a slow and steady climb this year.
Interest rates began their inevitable ascent in the final quarter of 2016, and we are expecting at least 2 more increases in 2017, according to our friends in the mortgage industry. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

We recently got some great news for home buyers as FHA lowered mortgage insurance premiums, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now offering low down payment mortgage products (3%) in order to compete with their government counterparts. That, combined with underwriting restrictions which are finally beginning to ease, should encourage first time buyer activity that has been priced out of the market.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods.
Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. I expect the market to continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates in 2017 and beyond.

My overall message here remains the same as last year: If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for REIN Area 101-113 residential home sales in 2016.

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

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Tags: Home Sale Statistics & Trends, Hampton, York County, Newport News, Poquoson

Model Grand Opening in Hallsley at Midlothian...there's chocolate and wine!

Posted by Liz Moore on Mon, Feb 13, 2017 @ 02:52 PM

perk fb ad.jpgJoin Liz Moore & Associates and The Southern Select Team on Friday, February 24th, from 11am - 1pm for our Perkinson Homes Model Grand Opening at 1906 Muswell Court in Hallsley at Midlothian. Enjoy luscious chocolates paired with exquisite wines creating a slightly sinful delight!

Attend this Grand Opening and our Dusty Boots Preview on Feb. 25-26 to be entered into a drawing to win a private party at Ashton Creek Vineyard.

For more information on this event, or to get started building your dream home in Midlothian, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com

Tags: New Homes, Richmond

Liz's Crystal Ball for the 2017 Williamsburg Housing Market

Posted by Liz Moore on Thu, Jan 26, 2017 @ 04:04 PM

Crystal Ball.jpg2016 was a solid year for local real estate. Here in Williamsburg, closed sales finished up 6.4%
for the year, with pending sales up over 10% in December, which is activity higher than we
typically see during the holidays. The New Year has started off with a bang, which I believe is
indicative of another strong year for our market.

We are entering 2017 with only slightly over 4 months of active inventory, and homes selling, on
average, in only 50 days. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good
condition. The exception here is the luxury market, where sellers need to be significantly more
patient – there is currently 10 months of inventory priced at $750,000 and up.

Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price in
Williamsburg hovering right around $300,000 for most of the year.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

Consumer confidence has been our biggest challenge in recent years, especially during the
contentious presidential election. With that behind us, activity levels have definitely regained
momentum.

My expectation is that there are many sellers who have been waiting for more favorable market
conditions to list – and that should begin to happen as we move toward Spring. We saw a 30% jump in
new listings in December, signaling that wise sellers recognize the importance of beating the
competition to the Spring market.

As prices begin an inevitable rise, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP in order
to take advantage of a 7 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s
important to note that the market can shift quickly, and the pendulum is likely to continue its
swing toward lower inventory levels, creating a more competitive environment than we’ve seen
in recent years.

Interest rates will begin a slow and steady climb this year.
Interest rates began their inevitable ascent in the final quarter of 2016, and we are expecting at
least 2 more increases in 2017, according to our friends in the mortgage industry. The good news is
that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the
bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this
year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

We recently got some great news for home buyers as FHA lowered mortgage insurance premiums, and
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now offering low down payment mortgage products (3%) in order to
compete with their government counterparts. That, combined with underwriting restrictions which are
finally beginning to ease, should encourage first time buyer activity that has been priced out of
the market.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods.
Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. I
expect the market to continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates in 2017 and beyond.
My overall message here remains the same as last year: If a home purchase is on your New Year
resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most
realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may
cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment
increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a
more critical consideration.

We were fortunate to participate in 1 out of every 6 home sales in greater Williamsburg in 2016,
insuring our position as the #1 agency in the local market. Your support and referrals are much
appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our
hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for WMLS, 23188, 23185, and 23186 residential home sales in
2016.*

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