The Liz Moore Market Watch Blog

Welcome to Market Talk!

I'm Liz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, and today we’re going to talk about what’s happening in the local real estate market. It has been a crazy few years, that’s for sure…and folks have a lot of questions. So, we’re going to tackle the big ones today: if you’re a seller, have you missed your opportunity? And, if you’re a buyer, how do you avoid over-paying in this crazy market?

My goal is to bring some clarity about what’s really happening in the market, and how you can leverage that to accomplish your personal real estate goals.

So, let’s get to it!

Lots of people are concerned that we are headed for another real estate bubble. It’s hard to turn on the news and not hear someone talking about the housing market getting ready to crash.

My personal opinion is that is not going to happen. To be clear, the market is stabilizing, and we’re experiencing that right now. I think it is safe to say that the market has “peaked” and we’ll come back to what that means for sellers and for buyers.

However, stabilizing or correcting does not equal a market crash or a bubble bursting, like it did in 2008. The fundamentals in the housing market are VERY different than they were in 2008.

First of all, the housing inventory situation is totally different. In 2008, we had 8+ months of inventory or, “supply”. Now, we have less than a month.

Next, one of the primary reasons for the 2008 crash was ridiculously lax lending standards – mortgage companies would literally approve a mortgage for anyone who could fog a mirror. Today, the opposite is true – mortgage underwriters are extremely conservative making sure that borrowers can afford the monthly payments they are applying for.

Lastly, people have more equity than ever, and even if they faced foreclosure, they would be able to sell.

What all that means is that people are in a far better position to weather a tough economic period than they were 15 years ago. t’s pretty clear that we’re going to face some serious inflation in the coming months, but that is not likely to cause a rash of foreclosures. Even for those folks that are unable to afford their
current living situation, there is plenty of demand and equity to give them enough room to sell without facing foreclosure.

Ok, Liz, if the real estate market isn’t going to crash, then what *is* going to happen next?

Well, it’s already happening. The market is beginning to stabilize. This is happening for a couple of reasons:

The recent increase in interest rates has taken some buyers out of the market. Each percentage point of increase translates to a loss of buying power of approximately 10%.

Prices were escalating so quickly that buyers have begun to put the brakes on. At Liz Moore & Associates, one of the trends we follow very carefully is what we call an over asking report. The percentage of listings that are selling over the asking price remains high even after a slight dip.

Let’s look at interest rates for a moment. This graph shows rates since 1971. Over the last 50 years, rates have averaged 7.77%. So, we still have a ways to go before we reach the average.

As demand slows, we’re seeing fewer bidding wars (although there are still some), and as a result sales prices are not being driven up to the extreme levels of a few months ago.

What Does That Mean For Sellers?

So, does that mean that sellers have missed the boat? Not at all. Although they may have missed the crazy frenzy at the height of the market, a listing that’s in good shape and well-priced can still expect to sell relatively quickly and probably for full price, or at least close to it. Maybe only 2 offers to choose from rather than 17.

As the market continues to stabilize, we will see a return to more normal negotiating terms: no longer will buyers be forced to waive appraisals and home inspections if they want a house. We’re beginning to see home sale contingencies again.

My advice to sellers is this: If you are contemplating a move, you would be wise to do it sooner rather than later.

What Does the Changing Market Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have had a really rough go of it for the past 2 years. And, because many buyers are actually sellers on the other side of the transaction and vice versa, it will actually finally be a good time to consider moving up  Over the past year, many sellers stayed on the sideline because they didn’t want to get into the frenzy on the other end.

Over-paying has been a major buyer concern given the market dynamics of the past few years. Let’s look at appreciation trends and see what they really mean:

The wild card here is that we can’t really forecast what appreciation is going to do; all we can do is look at historical averages and make our best guess 

Which is why when we’re counseling buyers, we encourage
them not only to look at their house as an investment or “asset,” but also as their HOME. Buyers need to make a choice given their options. For instance, if the choice is between renting and owning, you need to consider that rents rise with inflation. And so, although you may be paying a higher interest rate right now, your monthly housing cost will be fixed, as opposed to subject to 3-5% annual rent increases.

Make your best offer, and as long as you plan to be in your new home long enough, appreciation is likely to offset what you may have to over pay. Your REALTOR® can review appreciation trends specific to your neighborhood with you.

Contact us to learn what this data means for your specific situation!

By: Liz Moore

There May Never Be a Better Time to Sell Your Home.

The primary factors that are influencing both national and local real estate markets right now – low supply and high demand – have converged to create an incredibly favorable market for sellers. This is particularly true in our local market, where additional demand has been fueled by the pandemic; buyers who now work remotely and can accordingly choose where they live and no longer be restricted by a commute, are finding the Peninsula a highly desirable place to live.

Sellers in 2021 enjoyed peak pricing, with the median sold price up 8.7% over last year on the Peninsula. That was enhanced by multiple offers in many instances. At Liz Moore & Associates, we pride ourselves on being students of the market, and we monitor the trend of the number of properties that sell over asking price. That was almost 60% of the market at its peak in June, and still 39% at the end of the year.

My crystal ball says that the favorable trend for sellers will continue well into 2022. The only 2 things likely to slow the train down are an increase in interest rates, which will take some buyers out of the market, and an influx of listing inventory, creating more competition. I do believe that both of those things will happen in 2022, but most likely not until the 2^nd or 3^rd quarter.

So, What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have had a tough go of it for the past 2 years. When there are 5 offers on a new listing, only 1 buyer is successful in their bid, leaving 4 disappointed and still looking. However, historically low interest rates are a compelling reason to stay in the game, and also inspire a buyer to pay over asking to win the bid on the property they really want.

Closed sales on the Peninsula were up 19.1% in 2021 over the prior year (and 42% at Liz Moore & Associates Newport News Branch), so that’s good news. We believe the key for buyers to win in the current market climate is to hire a great agent. And, while that may sound self-serving, it’s true. Experienced agents who understand the market, have solid relationships with the other agents, and who are savvy negotiators will make the difference for a buyer to be successful.

I predict that sales will drop slightly in 2022. So says Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS, and I agree. Although there is plenty of demand out there, inventory is simply so low (hovering around a 1-month supply as of this writing) that it will keep a lid on the number of sales.

Real Estate is a Great Hedge Against Inflation.

If you invest $30,000 in the stock market, and your annual return is 7%, then you’ve earned $2,100 (which is a lot better than you’ll do in a regular savings account in the bank!). Invest that same $30,000 as a down payment on a $300,000 home, and if it appreciates 7% in a year, then you’ve earned $21,000 – 10 times more! That’s the benefit that the leverage of real estate affords.

This is a great time to explore investing in real estate; your portfolio can guarantee your retirement, or it can get your kids started on building lifetime wealth.

Don’t let the intense market intimidate you. If you want to take advantage of the sellers’ market and the low interest rates to move up to a dream house for instance, don’t let the challenge of buying stop you. Your Liz Moore agent can help you formulate a strategy, and combined with a little patience, we can make it happen.

In 2008, we all wished we had sold our homes back in 2005. Where will you be in 2025?

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for REIN MLS areas 101-113 residential home sales in 2021.

By: Liz Moore

There May Never Be a Better Time to Sell Your Home.
The primary factors that are influencing both national and local real estate markets right now – low supply
and high demand – have converged to create an incredibly favorable market for sellers. This is particularly
true in our local market, where additional demand has been fueled by the pandemic; buyers who now work
remotely and can accordingly choose where they live and no longer be restricted by a commute, are finding
Richmond a highly desirable place to live.

Sellers in 2021 enjoyed peak pricing, with the median sold price up 12.3% over last year in the Greater
Richmond region. That was enhanced by multiple offers in many instances. My crystal ball says that the
favorable trend for sellers will continue well into 2022. The only 2 things likely to slow the train down
are an increase in interest rates, which will take some buyers out of the market, and an influx of listing
inventory, creating more competition. I do believe that both of those things will happen in 2022, but most
likely not until the 2nd or 3rd quarter.

So, What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have had a tough go of it for the past 2 years. When there are 5 offers on a new listing, only 1 buyer
is successful in their bid, leaving 4 disappointed and still looking. However, historically low interest rates
are a compelling reason to stay in the game, and also inspire a buyer to pay over asking to win the bid on
the property they really want.

Closed sales in the Richmond area were up 7.3% in 2021 over the prior year (and 23.6% at Liz Moore &
Associates in Richmond), so that’s good news. We believe the key for buyers to win in the current market
climate is to hire a great agent. And, while that may sound self-serving, it’s true. Experienced agents who
understand the market, have solid relationships with the other agents, and who are savvy negotiators will
make the difference for a buyer to be successful.

I predict that sales will drop slightly in 2022. So says Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National
Association of REALTORS, and I agree. Although there is plenty of demand out there, inventory is simply
so low (hovering around half a month’s supply as of this writing) that it will keep a lid on the number
of sales.

Real Estate is a Great Hedge Against Inflation.

If you invest $30,000 in the stock market, and your annual return is 7%, then you’ve earned $2,100 (which
is a lot better than you’ll do in a regular savings account in the bank!). Invest that same $30,000 as a down
payment on a $300,000 home, and if it appreciates 7% in a year, then you’ve earned $21,000 – 10 times
more! That’s the benefit that the leverage of real estate affords.

This is a great time to explore investing in real estate; your portfolio can guarantee your retirement, or it
can get your kids started on building lifetime wealth.

Don’t let the intense market intimidate you. If you want to take advantage of the sellers’ market and the
low interest rates to move up to a dream house for instance, don’t let the challenge of buying stop you.
Your Liz Moore agent can help you formulate a strategy, and combined with a little patience, we can make
it happen.

In 2008, we all wished we had sold our homes back in 2005. Where will you be in 2025?

By: Liz Moore

There May Never Be a Better Time to Sell Your Home.

The primary factors that are influencing both national and local real estate markets right now – low supply and high demand – have converged to create an incredibly favorable market for sellers. This is particularly true in our local market, where additional demand has been fueled by the pandemic; buyers who now work remotely and can accordingly choose where they live and no longer be restricted by a commute, are finding Williamsburg a highly desirable place to live.

Sellers in 2021 enjoyed peak pricing, with the median sold price up 7% over last year in Greater Williamsburg. That was enhanced by multiple offers in many instances. At Liz Moore & Associates, we pride ourselves on being students of the market, and we monitor the trend of the number of properties that sell over asking price. That was almost 60% of the market at its peak in June, and still 39% at the end of the year.

My crystal ball says that the favorable trend for sellers will continue well into 2022. The only 2 things likely to slow the train down are an increase in interest rates, which will take some buyers out of the market, and an influx of listing inventory, creating more competition. I do believe that both of those things will happen in 2022, but most likely not until the 2^nd or 3^rd quarter.

So, What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have had a tough go of it for the past 2 years. When there are 5 offers on a new listing, only 1 buyer is successful in their bid, leaving 4 disappointed and still looking. However, historically low interest rates are a compelling reason to stay in the game, and also inspire a buyer to pay over asking to win the bid on the property they really want.

Closed sales in Williamsburg were up 17.5% in 2021 over the prior year (and 22.6% at Liz Moore & Associates), so that’s good news. We believe the key for buyers to win in the current market climate is to hire a great agent. And, while that may sound self-serving, it’s true. Experienced agents who understand the market, have solid relationships with the other agents, and who are savvy negotiators will make the difference for a buyer to be successful.

I predict that sales will drop slightly in 2022. So says Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS, and I agree. Although there is plenty of demand out there, inventory is simply so low (hovering around a 1 month supply as of this writing) that it will keep a lid on the number of sales.

Real Estate is a Great Hedge Against Inflation.

If you invest $30,000 in the stock market, and your annual return is 7%, then you’ve earned $2,100 (which is a lot better than you’ll do in a regular savings account in the bank!). Invest that same $30,000 as a down payment on a $300,000 home, and if it appreciates 7% in a year, then you’ve earned $21,000 – 10 times more! That’s the benefit that the leverage of real estate affords.

This is a great time to explore investing in real estate; your portfolio can guarantee your retirement, or it can get your kids started on building lifetime wealth.

Don’t let the intense market intimidate you. If you want to take advantage of the sellers’ market and the low interest rates to move up to a dream house for instance, don’t let the challenge of buying stop you. Your Liz Moore agent can help you formulate a strategy, and combined with a little patience, we can make it happen.

In 2008, we all wished we had sold our homes back in 2005. Where will you be in 2025?

Did you know that the week of Sept. 22 is the best time to buy a home in the U.S., according to data released by realtor.com? Forty-one out of 53 markets in the U.S. reported that buyers see significantly less competition and greater inventory during this time.

"As summer winds down and kids return to school, many families hit pause on their home search and wait until the next season to start again. With dramatically less competition, persistent buyers will feel the scales tip in their favor as eager sellers begin to cut their prices in an effort to entice a sale," said George Ratiu, senior economist of realtor.com. "As seasonal inventory builds up and restores itself to more buyer-friendly levels, fall buyers will be in a better position to take advantage of today's low mortgage rates and increased purchasing power."

In general, buyers face 26% less competition across all markets while inventory increases by 6.1% during the first week of September, compared to the average week of the year. For us here in the South, buyers see 26.2% less competition.

As a result, during this “Black Friday” week, 5.8% of listings nationwide see price cuts, making them, on average, 2.4% less expensive than during their peak. This effect is the most noticeable in the West, where homes on the market see an 8.6% reduction—to 4.6% lower than their peak—followed by the Midwest, the South and the Northeast.

If you've been thinking about buying, now could be the perfect time!!  Click here to search available homes for sale.And if you're brand new to the home buying process, or just want to be better educated, download our free Home Buyer's Guide.

2016 was a solid year for local real estate. Here on the Peninsula, closed sales finished up
9.5% for the year, with pending sales up just under 10% in December, which is activity higher
than we typically see during the holidays. The New Year has started off with a bang, which I
believe is indicative of another strong year for our market.

We are entering 2017 with only slightly over 5 months of active inventory, and homes selling,
on average, in only 97 days. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good
condition. The exception here is the luxury market, where sellers need to be significantly
more patient – there is currently 10 months of inventory priced at $750,000 and up.
Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price on
the Peninsula hovering right around $180,000 for most of the year.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

Consumer confidence has been our biggest challenge in recent years, especially
during the contentious presidential election. With that behind us, activity levels have
definitely regained momentum.

My expectation is that there are many sellers who have been waiting for more favorable
market conditions to list – and that should begin to happen as we move toward Spring.
We saw a 30% jump in new listings in December, signaling that wise sellers recognize the
importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As prices begin an inevitable rise, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP
in order to take advantage of a 7 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s
important to note that the market can shift quickly, and the pendulum is likely to continue its
swing toward lower inventory levels, creating a more competitive environment than we’ve seen
in recent years.

Interest rates will begin a slow and steady climb this year.
Interest rates began their inevitable ascent in the final quarter of 2016, and we are expecting at least 2 more increases in 2017, according to our friends in the mortgage industry. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

We recently got some great news for home buyers as FHA lowered mortgage insurance premiums, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now offering low down payment mortgage products (3%) in order to compete with their government counterparts. That, combined with underwriting restrictions which are finally beginning to ease, should encourage first time buyer activity that has been priced out of the market.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods.
Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. I expect the market to continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates in 2017 and beyond.

My overall message here remains the same as last year: If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for REIN Area 101-113 residential home sales in 2016.

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

Are you interested in hot real estate topics, tips and trends?  
Click below to subscribe to our blog! 

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In the Central Virginia Region, sold price verses list price trends yielded a 96.7% ratio, up from last year's 79.7% (November 2015), a dramatic 21.27% upswing.

As we begin to move into the year's busiest selling season, this will certainly create pressure on decreasing Month's Supply of Inventory (MSI) in the months to come.

What does this mean to you?  Now is a great time to sell!

Statistics are from CVRMLS, and are based on data from Dec. 2015 - Dec. 2016. 

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

Are you interested in hot real estate topics, tips and trends?  
Click below to subscribe to our blog! 

Closed Sales in the Greater Williamsburg real estate market are up 4.6% over 2015. 

It looks like the year will finish strong, with positive trends in each of the key benchmarks.  2017 promises to be another great year for Williamsburg real estate!

*Statistics are from the Williamsburg Multiple Listing Service, and are based on January – October 2016.

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

Are you interested in hot real estate topics, tips and trends?  
Click below to subscribe to our blog! 

Subscribe!

The average number of days on market in the greater Williamsburg are housing market (23185, 23188, 23168) is 55 days.  That means that homes are selling in less than two months!

Current inventory of available homes on the market is relatively low, which translates to a great time to sell.

*Statistics are from the Williamsburg Multiple Listing Service, and are based on January – September, and run date October 15th, 2016.

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

Are you interested in hot real estate topics, tips and trends?  
Click below to subscribe to our blog! 

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The supply of inventory in the Greater Richmond area

This benchmark reflects the number of months it would take to exhaust active listings at the current sales rate.  Generally speaking, a 3 month supply of inventory indicates a seller's market. 

What does this mean for you?  It's a great time to sell!

Statistics are from CVRMLS, and are based on data from January – August, 2016. 

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

Are you interested in hot real estate topics, tips and trends?  
Click below to subscribe to our blog! 

Subscribe!