The Liz Moore Market Watch Blog

By: Donna Moyer, Managing Broker in Newport News

2018 was another solid year for local real estate. Here on the Peninsula, closed sales finished up 1% for the year, on top of a small increase in 2017. The final quarter was strong, with pending sales up a little over 7%.

We are entering 2019 with less than 4.5 months of active inventory, and homes selling, on average, in only 41 days. On average, sellers accepted offers at over 98% of their asking price last year. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good condition, or for prospective sellers who are thinking about diving into the market. Nationwide, most markets are experiencing inventory shortages, which is the single biggest factor keeping a lid on the number of sales.

The exception here is the upper end market, where sellers need to be significantly more patient – there is currently 10 months of inventory priced at $500,000 and up on the Peninsula.

Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price on the Peninsula at $192,00 for most of the year.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

A shortage of listings has been our biggest challenge for the past 18 months. My expectation is that we will continue to see more listings come on the market as we move into the Spring. We have seen a significant jump in new listings over the past few months, signaling that wise sellers recognize the importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As the typical Spring seasonal demand builds, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP in order to take advantage of a 9 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s important to note that the market can shift quickly, and it will not surprise me to see a highly competitive Spring season for homes selling below $400,000.

Interest rates will continue a slow and steady climb this year. Interest rates have been perplexing over the past 12 months. Most predicted the inevitable ascent would begin as the economy gained steam, but rates remained lower than predicted, most likely because the feds were hesitant to do anything that might inhibit the momentum of the recovery.

I believe that 2019 will be the year that interest rates incrementally increase, but the question remains by how much and how frequently. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods. Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. We saw a slight rise in appreciation on the Peninsula last year (with the median sold price up 5%), and I expect we will continue to stay on this more normal appreciation rate in 2019 and beyond.

If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

We were fortunate to participate in 1 out of every 6 home sales on the Peninsula in 2018, insuring a position as an agency in the local market. Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics (REIN MLS areas 101-113) residential home sales in 2018

If you are looking to buy or sell a home this year, email us at info@lizmoore.com.  We'd love to help!

Join us on Saturday, February 16th, from 1-4pm for the Liz Moore and Associates New Homes Tour.  With 11 homes on tour from the Peninsula up to Richmond, one is bound to be near you!

And what's better than touring beautiful homes?  Doing so while sampling wine and chocolate! 

Bring your valentine out for a little fun! To download the complete list of participating homes, visit www.lizmoore.com/valentine.

At Liz Moore & Associates, we truly love where we live!  So much so, in fact, that we commissioned local artist Bob Oller of Oller Creative Studios, to create original vector paintings of some of our favorite places!

Oller introduced his LizLocal collection a few months ago in the Newport News Liz Moore office in City Center – introducing the collection at a reception for VIP clients and Liz Moore agents.

5 paintings were unveiled to an eager audience:

Poquoson Flats
Yorktown Skies
Playing Time Lions Bridge, Newport News
Clear Skies, Air & Space Hampton
City Center Newport News

You can enjoy these works in the lobby at 11801 Canon Boulevard in Newport News, or view them online at lizmoore.com/art.  Various size glycee prints are also available via the website.

What’s next?  Stay tuned for the Williamsburg and Richmond office debuts!

For more information, visit lizmoore.com/art!

Donna Moyer, Managing Broker of our Newport News office, shares what she sees happening in the Peninsula real estate market in 2018.

2017 was a solid year for local real estate. Here on The Peninsula, closed sales finished up 3% for the year, with pending sales up over 5%, which indicates a strong start to 2018. Much like last year, we did not experience the typical holiday slowdown, which also bodes well for sales activity in the New Year, despite some early snow events in January.

We are entering 2018 with just over 4 months of active inventory, and homes selling, on average, in only 50 days. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good condition, or for prospective sellers who are thinking about diving into the market. Nationwide, most markets are experiencing inventory shortages, which is the single biggest factor keeping a lid on the number of sales.

The exception here is the upper-end market, where sellers need to be significantly more patient – there is currently 12 months of inventory priced at $500,000 and up on The Peninsula.

Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price on The Peninsula slightly above $180,000 for most of the year, and finishing up at $185,000.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

Consumer confidence has been our biggest challenge in recent years, especially during the contentious presidential election. With that now behind us, activity levels have definitely regained momentum. Record activity in the stock market has also translated to increased real estate interest.

My expectation is that there are many sellers who have been waiting for more favorable market conditions to list – and that will continue to happen as we move toward Spring. We have seen a significant jump in new listings over the past few months, signaling that wise sellers recognize the importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As prices continue to climb due to the inventory shortage, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP in order to take advantage of an 8 year streak of historically low rates Real Estate is Local. So are We. and home values. It’s important to note that the market can shift quickly, and it will not surprise me to see a highly competitive Spring season for homes selling below $400,000.

Interest rates will begin a slow and steady climb this year. Interest rates have been perplexing over the past 12 months. Most predicted the inevitable ascent would begin as the economy gained steam, but rates remained lower than predicted, most likely because the feds were hesitant to do anything that might inhibit the momentum of the recovery.

I believe that 2018 will be the year that interest rates incrementally increase, but the question remains by how much and how frequently. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods. Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. The overall Peninsula market appreciated 3% in 2017, and I expect will continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates (5 to 6%) in 2018 and beyond.

If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

We were fortunate to participate in 1 out of every 7 home sales on The Peninsula in 2017, insuring our position as a leader in the local market. Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

If you are looking to buy or sell a home this year, email us at info@lizmoore.com.  We'd love to help!

"Working with Wayne Harbin and his company was a wonderful experience!! We couldn't imagine our home in a more perfect way! They helped us pick everything out and answered any and every question we could think of. Shirley Hammond with Liz Moore was beyond amazing. She and the Harbins made this process of building a new home so easy and fun. We never had any problems throughout this whole process and they all made sure everything was taken care of before we moved into our dream home. Thank you all again!!"

- Jordan and Chris McDougal

Village Park of Poquoson, a community of 26 town home units, is masterfully crafted by Wayne Harbin Builders and located in the heart of Poquoson. Offering a small town atmosphere with friendly neighbors who have a common interest in the well-being of the city and their families, Poquoson is near major employment sites including Langley Air Force Base, NASA, Fort Monroe, and The Newport News Shipyard.

Interested in Village Park of Poquoson?  Click below to download the price list.

"I just wanted to say thank you to Wayne Harbin Builders, Shirley Hammond (Liz Moore), as well as Fulton Mortgage and Lytle Title for making our recent home purchase one of the easiest things we have ever done.  Being a first time homebuyer and having a picture in your mind of exactly what you are looking for can be a very daunting and exhausting process.  When we had decided two years ago that we were ready to downsize and buy our first home, we never realized we would be house hunting for so long.  One look at the Village Park Townhomes in Poquoson ended our search.  The townhomes are beautiful both inside and out with quality material and endless upgrades that satisfied even the “pickiest” of buyers.  Our buying process couldn’t have been any easier thanks to Shirley Hammond and her team from Liz Moore.  From start to finish we were led through the entire process from offer to closing and beyond.  We are extremely happy with our decision and am pleased to call Village Park our home."

- Sam and Debbie Botelho

Village Park of Poquoson, a community of 26 town home units, is masterfully crafted by Wayne Harbin Builders and located in the heart of Poquoson. Offering a small town atmosphere with friendly neighbors who have a common interest in the well-being of the city and their families, Poquoson is near major employment sites including Langley Air Force Base, NASA, Fort Monroe, and The Newport News Shipyard.

Interested in Village Park of Poquoson?  Click below to download the price list.

Free beer! Free food! Join us on May 6^th from 1-3 at Village Park, the newest Wayne Harbin Builder community in Poquoson. St. George’s Brewery will be pouring their craft beer and The Thirsty Frog food truck will be serving some delicious eats!  

Out of 26 units, 6 have already sold and 3 are reserved. Don’t miss out on this flood insurance free living in Poquoson! Special incentives for a limited time. Call the Village Park team at 757-873-2707 for more details.

2016 was a solid year for local real estate. Here on the Peninsula, closed sales finished up
9.5% for the year, with pending sales up just under 10% in December, which is activity higher
than we typically see during the holidays. The New Year has started off with a bang, which I
believe is indicative of another strong year for our market.

We are entering 2017 with only slightly over 5 months of active inventory, and homes selling,
on average, in only 97 days. That is good news for sellers who are priced properly and in good
condition. The exception here is the luxury market, where sellers need to be significantly
more patient – there is currently 10 months of inventory priced at $750,000 and up.
Prices remained remarkably steady during the past 12 months, with the median sales price on
the Peninsula hovering right around $180,000 for most of the year.

Here is what I see in the coming 12 months:

Consumer confidence has been our biggest challenge in recent years, especially
during the contentious presidential election. With that behind us, activity levels have
definitely regained momentum.

My expectation is that there are many sellers who have been waiting for more favorable
market conditions to list – and that should begin to happen as we move toward Spring.
We saw a 30% jump in new listings in December, signaling that wise sellers recognize the
importance of beating the competition to the Spring market.

As prices begin an inevitable rise, consumers will realize that moves need to be made ASAP
in order to take advantage of a 7 year streak of historically low rates and home values. It’s
important to note that the market can shift quickly, and the pendulum is likely to continue its
swing toward lower inventory levels, creating a more competitive environment than we’ve seen
in recent years.

Interest rates will begin a slow and steady climb this year.
Interest rates began their inevitable ascent in the final quarter of 2016, and we are expecting at least 2 more increases in 2017, according to our friends in the mortgage industry. The good news is that this is a sure sign of a strengthening economy, but the bad news is that each hike raises the bar on home affordability. My prediction is that this will add some urgency to the market this year, particularly in the lower price ranges.

We recently got some great news for home buyers as FHA lowered mortgage insurance premiums, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now offering low down payment mortgage products (3%) in order to compete with their government counterparts. That, combined with underwriting restrictions which are finally beginning to ease, should encourage first time buyer activity that has been priced out of the market.

Prices will finally begin to show improvement in many neighborhoods.
Prices are neighborhood specific, and some areas are definitely improving faster than others. I expect the market to continue to trend toward more normal appreciation rates in 2017 and beyond.

My overall message here remains the same as last year: If a home purchase is on your New Year resolution list, buy early in the year, as interest rates have a much greater impact than most realize. For instance, waiting for prices to drop 5% to save $12,500 on a $250,000 purchase may cost you an extra $225 per month in payments; if rates increase from 4% to 5.5%, then your payment increases from $1194 to $1419. For most buyers, the affordability index of monthly payments is a more critical consideration.

Your support and referrals are much appreciated, and we promise to deliver the extraordinary client experience that has become our hallmark!

*All stats based on Broker Metrics for REIN Area 101-113 residential home sales in 2016.

If you’re a seller who has been wondering if it might finally be time to sell, email us at concierge@lizmoore.com, or click below, and we can prepare a complimentary analysis of market value for you – you just may be pleasantly surprised.

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Join us on Saturday, December 3rd and Sunday, December 4th from 1-4pm for our grand opening event at Village Park of Poquoson.  Come meet the Village Park team, along with the builder, and experience a true taste of Poquoson, with locally catered hors d'oeuvres.  

Currently, only one unit in the first building remains.  The builder is offering incentives and concessions on the last unit in building one and all of the second building.  Call 757-873-2707 for more details.

We have recently sold three units, leaving only one unit left in the first building at Village Park of Poquoson! Construction will begin soon on the second building. The builder is also offering free fireplace, washer & dryer, and refrigerator on all units in the first two buildings.  Don't wait - call 757-873-2707 today for more details.

This community of 26 town home units masterfully crafted by Wayne Harbin Builders is located in the heart of Poquoson.  Offering a small town atmosphere with friendly neighbors who have a common interest in the well-being of the city and their families, Poquoson is near major employment sites including Langley Air Force Base, NASA, Fort Monroe, and The Newport News Shipyard.