The Liz Moore Market Watch Blog

Winter 2024 Market Talk Report

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Thu, Feb 15, 2024 @ 06:31 AM

winter MTWelcome to Market Talk! I’m Liz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, and today we’re going to talk about what’s happening in our local real estate markets as we move into the new year in 2024.
I’ve heard some reports that the U.S. will record the lowest number of sales in 2023 since 2008. The real estate market was definitely off last year, but it did NOT feel like 2008. There are a number of reasons for that: first of all, the pace of the market remained steady, because unlike 2008 there was plenty of buyer demand. 
Back then, we had over 2 years of inventory available – last year the needle moved from less than 1 month to approaching 2 months. The result of that was that nearly one third of the market experienced multiple offers – good for sellers, not so much for buyers.

existing home sales

My prediction for 2024 is that it’s going to be a solid real estate year. I believe that for lots of reasons, but 
here are the main 3:

1. Buyer Demand continues to remain strong. One reason for this is the huge number of people in the prime household formation phase of life – 72 million millennials, more than any other time in history. Household formation begins at 26, and the prime buying years for first timers is now 33 to 35.

2. There is also a great deal of pent-up Seller Desire to Move. People love their low interest rates, but not necessarily their current houses. Many Americans put their moves on hold during the pandemic years, but life has moved on. During the past 2 years there have been almost 3 million marriages and 1.5 million divorces, 7 million babies born, and 7 million boomers turned 75, which translates to time to downsize. There were also 50 million job changes, and lots of flexibility as a result of new remote working opportunities. A lot of those sellers have put moves on hold because they don’t want to give up their 3% interest rates for rates that were hovering around 8%, but as we see those rates inch down, 6% seems like a bargain.

We’re already beginning to see new listings stabilize.

new listings

3. Interest Rates are finally headed down! And, all predictions are that they will continue to drop, very slowly, but consistently over the next 12 months. The combination of those 3 things mean better days are ahead; I 
think it’s safe to say that we are at the bottom of the trough.

Let’s dig in and examine some of the underlying benchmarks and clarify exactly what is happening!

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates have been the story for the past 2 years. With a 5% swing upward since the end of 2021, causing many buyers to hit the pause button on their home search, we finally can see some relief in sight. Compared to rates approaching 8% in the Fall of 2023, we are now enjoying mid 6’s, which relative to the 2 year climb, feels relatively doable. Most industry experts predict that rates will continue to 
fall over the next 12 months: 

rates-1

As interest rates become palatable again for buyers, we will see them return to the market. At the same time, those sellers who have been holding tight on the sidelines will begin dipping their toes in the market. Sellers are recognizing that their homes may never be worth more than they are right now, and that 2024 may be the ideal time to tap into their equity. Because of extremely strong price appreciation during the pandemic years, most homeowners have record high market values, and accordingly significantly more equity than they did pre-pandemic. Nearly 70% of homes are completely paid for, with the owners having no mortgage at all, or have at least 50% equity.

equity_

This record high equity creates an opportunity for sellers to trade up, and use their additional cash to either put down a larger down payment to offset interest rates, or to pay off other consumer debt that is carrying a 
higher interest rate. Either way, overall monthly expenses can actually drop, despite the fact that mortgage rates will be higher on the new house.

That additional inventory will make ALL the difference, and should create a robust Spring market. My advice to sellers is to beat the market – I would recommend listing in February or March, to get ahead of the Spring rush which will undoubtedly bring lots of additional competition. By capitalizing on continuing low inventory, you’ll be able to maximize your home price and have a favorable negotiating position.

For buyers, the same is true. Get pre-approved early, and begin shopping before the traditional Spring rush begins, where there will be less competition for the property you want. Now is the time to shop for a lender carefully. Many local lenders are offering incentives to borrowers where they will offer a “free” refinance 
when the inevitable rate drop begins. This creates a win-win situation.

We would love to meet with you to discuss what’s happening in the local market, and how it may affect your real estate plans for 2024. If you’re just curious about what your home may be worth in the current market, we would be happy to share our insights.  Click here to get started!

Tags: MarketTalk, WYD1

February Market Talk with Liz Moore - Live on 92.9 The Tide

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Thu, Feb 08, 2024 @ 07:04 AM

CupcakeWars2022_Logo-3Liz Moore & Associates' annual Cupcake Wars fundraiser is back and Liz sat down with Andy at 92.3 The Tide to talk about this amazing event.

Click here to listen.

Cupcake Wars is happening on Friday, February 9th from 11am – 2pm in ALL FOUR Liz Moore offices! Get creative and donate your prize winning treats, or stop by and pick up some baked goods for your sweet tooth. All proceeds will go to CHKD, Habitat for Humanity, and Smith Point Sea Rescue.

If you can't make it but would like to contribute, donate online at https://bit.ly/LMAcupcakes.

 

Tags: MarketTalk, WYD1

January Market Talk with Liz Moore - Live on 92.3 The Tide

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Wed, Jan 24, 2024 @ 07:25 AM

liz-moore-january-2024It’s a new year and Liz sat down with Andy at 92.3 The Tide to talk about why she believes the local real estate market will rebound in 2024. 2023 saw the lowest number of home sales for any year since 2008. However, Liz predicts that the market will receive a shot in the arm over the next 12 months. Why? Home inventory is on the way up, there is a large and growing buyer demand, and interest rates are decreasing from a peak of almost 8 percent.

Click here to listen.

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD1

December Market Talk with Liz Moore - Live on 92.3 The Tide

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Fri, Dec 29, 2023 @ 06:10 AM

WYDaily_20YearAnniversary_GraphicFor the final Market Talk of 2023, Liz talked with Andy at 92.3 The Tide looking back at 20 years in business. She shared what’s changed in the world of real estate during those two decades, what it’s been like to witness historic swings in the real estate market, and how she and her team are celebrating the 20th anniversary. 

Click here to listen.

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD1

November Market Talk with Liz Moore - Live on 92.3 The Tide

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Wed, Nov 22, 2023 @ 06:37 AM

Market-Talk-Liz-Moore-Nov-23This month, Liz sat down with Andy from 92.3 The Tide to talk about interest rates, local home prices, the new Liz Moore & Associates office on the Southside, and the company's recent partnership with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World.

Listen here!

Tags: lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD1

October Market Talk with Liz & Deelyn Robinson

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Tue, Oct 31, 2023 @ 07:13 AM

For this month’s Market Talk with Liz Moore, Liz invited her top agent Deelyn Robinson to join her in the Tide Studio. Liz provided an update on the local real estate market, including how some of the larger neighborhoods have been impacted by market trends. Deelyn talked about whether or not we are currently in a “seller’s market,” whether it’s a good idea to put your home on the market before the holidays, and how buyers are faring in the current market.

Check it out:

 

Tags: lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD1

3rd Quarter 2023 Market Talk Report

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Wed, Oct 04, 2023 @ 07:07 AM

cover-Oct-04-2023-11-04-41-7851-AMWelcome to Market Talk! I’m Liz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, and today we’re going to talk about what’s happening in our local real estate markets as of the end of the 3rd quarter.

This past year has been characterized by some very confusing signals: multiple offers remain strong in some segments of the market, while other pockets are experiencing a definite slow down.

Let’s dig in and examine some of the underlying benchmarks and clarify exactly what is happening!

Interest Rates 

Mortgage interest rates have remained stubbornly high, longer than we anticipated earlier in the year. Depending on the loan type and number of points, rates are hovering anywhere between 6.5 and low 7’s. That’s a big jump over the 3’s in early 2022, and has definitely caused many buyers to hit the pause button on their home search. 

Most industry experts predict that rates will fall over the next 12 months:

mortgage-1

Inventory

One of the unexpected consequences of interest rates remaining high is the negative impact that’s having on an already low inventory of homes for sale.

Nearly 71% of homeowners have rates on their existing homes lower than 4%, and as a result are determined to “stay put” rather than face getting a new mortgage at a higher rate.

rates

The Silver Lining - Equity!

Equity is definitely the silver lining in today’s real estate market. Because of extremely strong price appreciation during the pandemic, most homeowners have record high market values, and accordingly 
significantly more equity than they did pre-pandemic. Nearly 70% of homes are completely paid for, with the owners having no mortgage at all, or have at least 50% equity.

equity

This actually poses a new opportunity for homeowners who are considering their moving options, but are struggling with the idea of giving up their all-time-low interest rates.

Although their mortgage rates are low, other debt is carrying very high interest rates – in some cases nearing 20% for certain credit cards. And, unfortunately, Americans are carrying a high amount of additional debt right now – credit card debt is at its highest level ever – nearing $1 trillion. Student loans that have been on pause since 2020 are getting ready to kick in next month, and many Americans relied on credit cards too much over the past few years.

Sadly, half of American homeowners have less than $10,000 in savings (unless, of course, you 
count their equity).

The Opportunity

This creates an opportunity for homeowners to sell their home and unlock all of that equity. In addition to having a downpayment and closing costs for a replacement home, they can pay off student loans and credit card debt and become debt free except for a mortgage. 

So, although their new mortgage payment may be at 7%, their overall monthly payments are actually lower because they are no longer carrying additional debt. That is made even sweeter when you consider that you can refinance the mortgage if interest rates do indeed drop, which they are projected to do once the Feds get inflation under control.

In other words, just because you currently have a low interest rate, you shouldn’t necessarily put your move on hold. Every situation is different, and we would be happy to help you assess what makes the most sense 
for you and your situation.

 

 

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD2

September Market Talk with Liz Moore & Keith Freeland - Live on 92.3 the Tide

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Thu, Sep 28, 2023 @ 02:31 PM

Mortgage Loan Officer Keith Freeland from Movement Mortgage joined Liz Moore and Andy Harris from Tide Radio in the studio to talk about problem solving. The trio explored why the real estate market has slowed this year. Keith also explained how homeowners can leverage their home equity to sell their current home and turn a profit, which allows them to pay off others forms of debit such as credit cards and student loans. 

Check it out:

 

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD1

Meet Alexis Tisdale - First Time Homebuyer

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Thu, Aug 31, 2023 @ 12:00 PM

Alexis Tisdale, a first time homebuyer, joined Andy from The Tide to talk about her homebuying journey.  Alexis is a client of Ellen Knecht, agent with Liz Moore & Associates, and recently purchased her first home at 25 years old.  She is excited to kiss her landlord goodbye and become a homeowner!

Watch Alexis's story:

 

Tags: lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, MarketTalk, WYD1

July Market Talk with Liz - Live on 92.3 the Tide

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Thu, Jul 27, 2023 @ 02:18 PM

MTLiz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, spoke with the Tide’s Andy Harris about current trends in the real estate market, an upcoming beer collaboration with the Virginia Beer Company, and she shared the story of how she got her start in the real estate industry.

Click here to listen!

Market Talk is a live monthly real estate report on 92.3 the Tide.  Check back next month for the newest interview.

Tags: MarketTalk

Market Talk with Liz: April 2023

Posted by Liz Moore on Wed, May 03, 2023 @ 02:19 PM

cover-May-03-2023-06-15-28-8798-PMWelcome to the 2nd quarter 2023 edition of Market Talk! 

My goal is to walk through what’s happening in the market, and bring some clarity to those of you who are making real estate decisions this Spring and Summer.

The 4th quarter of 2022 saw a sharp rise in interest rates which cooled the frenzied housing market considerably. This was the result of the Fed’s rapid hikes to the federal funds rate in the final months of last year in an effort to halt inflation.

Rates doubled, which translated to a 38% increase in a typical monthly payment for a home buyer, which in turn caused a large number of buyers to put the brakes on their home searches.

mortgage rates

As a result, we began 2023 with a much different temperature in the market than most of last year. The buyers who remained in the market in January were skittish, and frustrated by the rapid rate acceleration.

For the first time since before the pandemic, we began to see buyers offering less than asking price, and in some cases even getting seller concessions. Home inspections and appraisals became the 
norm again, and buyers found themselves in a better bargaining position to ask sellers to make repairs than they had been in a long time.

Richmond:

In February in our Richmond office, offers accepted for less than asking or at asking price were 62% of the market, while bidding wars were only happening on approximately 38% of the listings.

asking price rvs

Just as buyers were beginning to feel that the market pendulum was swinging back to their favor, things heated up again in March. We saw a sharp rise in multiple offers as it became clear that the number of buyers was still outpacing the inventory.

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price had increased to 50% of all sales!

Peninsula:

In February in our Peninsula office, for example, offers accepted for less than asking or at asking price were 59% of the market, while bidding wars were only happening on approximately 39% of the listings.

asking price nn

Just as buyers were beginning to feel that the market pendulum was swinging back to their favor, things heated up again in March. We saw a sharp rise in multiple offers as it became clear that the number of buyers was still outpacing the inventory.

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price dipped just a bit to 36%.

Williamsburg

In February in our Williamsburg office, for example, offers accepted less than asking price climbed to over 50% of the market, while bidding wars were only happening on approximately 25% of the listings.

asking price wbg

Just as buyers were beginning to feel that the market pendulum was swinging back to their favor, things heated up again in March. We saw a sharp rise in multiple offers as it became clear that the number of buyers was still outpacing the inventory.

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price doubled in 30 days, representing 50% of all sales.

Northern Neck

nnk mt

By the time our March report was published, offers over the asking price dipped just a bit to 36%.

It seems that the market is delivering mixed signals right now, but I believe what is really happening is that there are several different markets colliding at the same time:

• For listings that are well priced and in good condition, there are still fewer homes available than there are buyers who need or want to move, and so that segment of the market is still pretty “hot,” with multiple offers and sellers enjoying the upper hand.

• For those sellers who have jumped into the market at the last minute (fearing that they’ve missed the gravy train of 2021 and early 2022, and accordingly pushing the envelope with unrealistic prices), they are experiencing a longer time on the market, and weary buyers pushing back with lower offers containing normal contingencies.

Markets are also experiencing different activity levels based on price point and location, which can seem confusing. Now, more than ever, it’s important to have a seasoned agent advising you on negotiating strategies whether you’re a buyer or a seller (or both).

Thinking about making a move?  Let us guide you through these market conditions!

 

 

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk

Market Talk with Liz: January 2023

Posted by Lynnette Tully on Thu, Feb 02, 2023 @ 02:47 PM

By: Liz Moore

Welcome to Market Talk!header

I’m Liz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, and today  we’re going to talk about what’s happening in the local real  estate market. This past year was a roller coaster ride, and  it has left many people questioning whether now is a good  time to move. The market is actually pretty complicated  these days, and it’s important to have a solid understanding  of what’s happening and how it will affect YOUR move.

My goal is to bring some clarity about what’s really happening in the market, and how you can leverage that to accomplish your personal real estate goals.

So, let’s get to it!


The biggest story last year has been the dramatic increase in  interest rates. While that may have been a positive influence  on our savings account ROI, it dramatically dampened the real estate market by causing prospective homebuyers to  hit the “pause” button as they watched their monthly house payments significantly increase in record time.

Graph 1

Fewer buyers in the market resulted in a slowdown in multiple offers (in many cases, but not all), which in turn slowed  down the percentage of listings that are selling above asking  price. For the first time in several years, buyers are once again  in a bargaining position to ask for closing cost assistance  from sellers, to negotiate repair requests from home inspections, and in some cases to even pay less than asking prices.

So, in a nutshell, the pendulum has swung back toward a more  balanced market. You’ll see in the chart below that offers over  asking are running less than 30% in our local market, while offers under asking have crept over 40% of all offers. It’s important to note that these trends differ based on price point and  neighborhoods, and your REALTOR can counsel you on what  is trending in the specific market you’re considering.

 

Graph 2

Asking Price Trend Peninsula

rva

Encouraging News for Buyers

What does this mean if you’re interested in buying? It’s definitely good news. Although interest rates took a big jump  last year, they have come down over a percentage point since  the peak at over 7% last Fall. Several local lenders are marketing programs offering a credit toward a later refinance if  and when rates do come down. There are also a number of  creative financing options available, like an interest rate buy  down or adjustable rate mortgages, that make ownership  in the current climate even more affordable. Your REALTOR  can review your options with you, and recommend a local lender who has such programs available.

 

Graph 3

For most, not having to pay thousands of dollars over list  price, guarantee appraisals, and waive home inspections and  repairs more than makes up for the increase in interest rates.

Perhaps even more important to weary buyers is that they  have more choices than they have had for quite some time. Not only is inventory beginning to tick up, but the pace of the market has slowed, eliminating the frenzy that has characterized the past few years. This means that buyers can consider their choices in a far more reasonable market climate.

How About Selling?

For those considering selling this year, the market is a bit  more complex. Inventory remains low (although we’re anticipating an increase in available listings as the Spring season warms up), which means sellers are still commanding strong prices, even when there aren’t bidding wars. And, for those sellers who will turn around and buy, it’s finally a market that will allow you enough breathing room to accomplish a door-to-door move.

 

Graph 4

 

My advice to sellers who are considering a move is to do it sooner rather than later. Local inventory is hovering just less than 2 months. The uptick in inventory may mean lower offer prices as as the market continues to cool.

As I said at the onset, the market is complicated these days,  and it’s more important than ever that you have an experienced professional advising you. I recommend that sellers reach out to their REALTOR for an annual “equity check-up” to review the current market value of their home. That’s a great opportunity to discuss any improvement plans to see if the cost vs. value ratio makes sense, as well as explore what's happen in the mortgage world. Knowledge is Power!

Tags: lizlocal-NorthernNeck-realestate, lizlocal-richmond-realestate, lizlocal-williamsburg-realestate, lizlocal-peninsula-realestate, MarketTalk

Market Talk with Liz: Third Quarter 2022

Posted by Liz Moore on Wed, Sep 14, 2022 @ 01:30 PM

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-1Welcome to Market Talk!

I'm Liz Moore, President of Liz Moore & Associates, and today we’re going to talk about what’s happening in the local real estate market. It has been a crazy few years, that’s for sure…and folks have a lot of questions. So, we’re going to tackle the big ones today: if you’re a seller, have you missed your opportunity? And, if you’re a buyer, how do you avoid over-paying in this crazy market?

My goal is to bring some clarity about what’s really happening in the market, and how you can leverage that to accomplish your personal real estate goals.

So, let’s get to it!

Lots of people are concerned that we are headed for another real estate bubble. It’s hard to turn on the news and not hear someone talking about the housing market getting ready to crash.

My personal opinion is that is not going to happen. To be clear, the market is stabilizing, and we’re experiencing that right now. I think it is safe to say that the market has “peaked” and we’ll come back to what that means for sellers and for buyers.

However, stabilizing or correcting does not equal a market crash or a bubble bursting, like it did in 2008. The fundamentals in the housing market are VERY different than they were in 2008.

First of all, the housing inventory situation is totally different. In 2008, we had 8+ months of inventory or, “supply”. Now, we have less than a month.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-2

Next, one of the primary reasons for the 2008 crash was ridiculously lax lending standards – mortgage companies would literally approve a mortgage for anyone who could fog a mirror. Today, the opposite is true – mortgage underwriters are extremely conservative making sure that borrowers can afford the monthly payments they are applying for.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-3

Lastly, people have more equity than ever, and even if they faced foreclosure, they would be able to sell.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-4

What all that means is that people are in a far better position to weather a tough economic period than they were 15 years ago. t’s pretty clear that we’re going to face some serious inflation in the coming months, but that is not likely to cause a rash of foreclosures. Even for those folks that are unable to afford their
current living situation, there is plenty of demand and equity to give them enough room to sell without facing foreclosure.

Ok, Liz, if the real estate market isn’t going to crash, then what *is* going to happen next?

Well, it’s already happening. The market is beginning to stabilize. This is happening for a couple of reasons:

The recent increase in interest rates has taken some buyers out of the market. Each percentage point of increase translates to a loss of buying power of approximately 10%.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-5

Prices were escalating so quickly that buyers have begun to put the brakes on. At Liz Moore & Associates, one of the trends we follow very carefully is what we call an over asking report. The percentage of listings that are selling over the asking price remains high even after a slight dip.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-6

Let’s look at interest rates for a moment. This graph shows rates since 1971. Over the last 50 years, rates have averaged 7.77%. So, we still have a ways to go before we reach the average.

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-7

As demand slows, we’re seeing fewer bidding wars (although there are still some), and as a result sales prices are not being driven up to the extreme levels of a few months ago.

What Does That Mean For Sellers?

So, does that mean that sellers have missed the boat? Not at all. Although they may have missed the crazy frenzy at the height of the market, a listing that’s in good shape and well-priced can still expect to sell relatively quickly and probably for full price, or at least close to it. Maybe only 2 offers to choose from rather than 17.

As the market continues to stabilize, we will see a return to more normal negotiating terms: no longer will buyers be forced to waive appraisals and home inspections if they want a house. We’re beginning to see home sale contingencies again.

My advice to sellers is this: If you are contemplating a move, you would be wise to do it sooner rather than later.

What Does the Changing Market Mean for Buyers?

Buyers have had a really rough go of it for the past 2 years. And, because many buyers are actually sellers on the other side of the transaction and vice versa, it will actually finally be a good time to consider moving up  Over the past year, many sellers stayed on the sideline because they didn’t want to get into the frenzy on the other end.

Over-paying has been a major buyer concern given the market dynamics of the past few years. Let’s look at appreciation trends and see what they really mean:

MarketTalk_3Q2022_PPT-8

The wild card here is that we can’t really forecast what appreciation is going to do; all we can do is look at historical averages and make our best guess 

Which is why when we’re counseling buyers, we encourage
them not only to look at their house as an investment or “asset,” but also as their HOME. Buyers need to make a choice given their options. For instance, if the choice is between renting and owning, you need to consider that rents rise with inflation. And so, although you may be paying a higher interest rate right now, your monthly housing cost will be fixed, as opposed to subject to 3-5% annual rent increases.

Make your best offer, and as long as you plan to be in your new home long enough, appreciation is likely to offset what you may have to over pay. Your REALTOR® can review appreciation trends specific to your neighborhood with you.

Contact us to learn what this data means for your specific situation!

 

 

 

Tags: Home Sale Statistics & Trends, MarketTalk